Settled to what the public can read.
Rent rises with inflation. Your weekend depends on the weather. Predicated lets you take a side on the numbers that already shape your month, from $1 a contract, settled to the official figure when it is published. You see the source and every cost before you trade, and you set your own limits before your first order.
Coffee poured, pitas leaving the oven, a supermarket produce shelf, a farmers market stall, rain on a street, then "Settled to what the public can read." Video: USDA (public domain) and Wikimedia Commons contributors (CC0, public domain); cut to an 18-second silent loop. Credits. Stops if your device is set to reduce motion.
Assets a business needs before it may enter a swap off an exchange
Index value of one exchange weather contract, sold in 20-contract blocks
An event contract that settles to the same published number
Three one-market prototypes, each with a silent video loop.
Each opens on the market's story: a public-domain clip, cut to a silent loop with a caption and a pause control, that stops when the phone is set to reduce motion. The clip sits behind the story only. The order sheet, a position and every money screen carry no images or video (charter S3).
The home page, when the founders say so.
Nothing is published until all four founders agree (D7), and every line waits on the Claims founder.
Settled to what the public can read.
Contracts on inflation, interest rates, jobs and the weather, each settled to a public number you can check yourself. No sports. No casino games. You set your limits before your first order.
Settles to the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report for Central Park.
Each week's public sources, the day they publish: the BLS CPI release, the FOMC statement, the NWS daily climate report.
Every contract says what settles it.
A named public source and a written fallback, on the contract before you buy. Nobody decides the outcome afterwards.
Every cost before the button.
The venue's fee and ours, in cents, with the venue's formula beside it. For a perpetual, the funding, until you close.
Limits first.
A monthly limit set from your own means, deposits that count only once they settle, and a break you can take at any time.
How a published number reaches your costs.
Free lessons, no account needed. The first one is basis risk: a contract pays on the number, not on your loss, and it can pay nothing in the month you lose the most. We never tell you whether to buy one, which one, or how many.
Rain and sales, read against the NWS monthly total. Invented business. Invented figures.
5 minutes · no order button inside a lessonList a contract on anyone's death, injury or illness. List sports at launch. Hold your money. Take the other side of your trade. Let you trade on money that has not settled. Show anyone your profit.
Predicated is a technology company, not a bank, an exchange, a broker-dealer or a futures commission merchant, and it never takes the other side of your trade. Your money is held by a licensed partner or stays in your own wallet. You can lose money.
The account, from first look to close-out.
Tap through it. Open a contract, take the first-order check, place an order, then close the perpetual and watch funding stop. Change where you live and the catalogue changes with it. The notes on the right light up for the screen you are on.
Where a founder signs, and where the guard shows its work.
Decision traces, the approvals queue, every public reference and how fresh it is, venue concentration, and each guard rule's refusals today. Approvals are single use, and an agent cannot sign one.
| Order | Where | Contract | Venue | Eligible | Exposure | Reference | Guard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ord_8812 | New York | CPI ≥3.0%, Sep · Yes ×10 | Kalshi | Yes | 21% of limit | BLS · fresh | 12 passed |
| ord_8813 | London | Rain ≥1 in, Central Park · Yes ×5 | — | No | — | — | P7 jurisdiction_allows |
| ord_8814 | Ohio | Fed cut, next meeting · No ×20 | Kalshi | Yes | Settling funds | FOMC · fresh | P5 settled_funds_only |
| ord_8815 | Texas | US gasoline >$3.20 Monday · Yes ×8 | Kalshi | Yes | 9% of limit | EIA · stale | Paused: L6 |
| ord_8816 | Book | CPI ≥3.0%, Sep · No ×40 | Kalshi | — | — | — | P3 tracks_never_cross |
| Public reference | Contracts | Last read | Freshness budget | Fallback | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLS CPI-U release | CPI | 2 min ago | 15 min | Kalshi Rule 6.3 | Fresh |
| Federal Reserve FOMC statement | Fed rate | 4 min ago | 15 min | Kalshi Rule 6.3 | Fresh |
| NWS Daily Climate Report, Central Park | Weather | 6 min ago | 30 min | Kalshi Rule 6.3 | Fresh |
| CF Benchmarks BRTI | BTC perpetual | 1 s ago | 5 s | Venue index rule | Fresh |
| EIA weekly retail gasoline | Gasoline | 9 days ago | 8 days | Kalshi Rule 6.3 | Stale · orders halted |
Freshness budgets are placeholders until the founders sign them; while a budget is unset, live orders on that reference are refused.
Approvals
Single use. Signed by a named founder seat. An agent's signature is refused.
Venue concentration
L12 One venue at launch (D5). The integration is built for more than one (D6).
Guard refusals today
The founders' book, behind its wall.
Founders' capital only, never offered or shown to a customer. Every wall check is listed with its state, the known gap included. The kill switch is one founder's pull and only the Book founder's reset.
The wall
The mock still shares one id generator across both tracks, so gaps in one reveal activity in the other. Fixed in build step 1.
The graduation ladder
| Mechanism, in D3's order | What the research found | State |
|---|---|---|
| Cross-venue price gaps | Average gaps of 2–4% between equivalent markets against about a 2% break-even; the market-wide figure is not ours to claim | Paper |
| Forecasting tournaments | Metaculus AI benchmark: a $50,000–58,000 pool per season, shared across about 100 entrants | Paper |
| Directional, reference-settled positions | Directional institutional trading still reads as shallow in a bank's own research | Paper |
| Maker-side programmes | Kalshi's incentive pays $1–$1,000 per market per day; the maker side is held by professional desks | Deferred |
Limits
On a daily-loss breach, new opening orders halt at once and closing orders stay allowed.