Central Park from above, early morning. Video: the Dronalist, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cut and looped. Silent; stops if your phone is set to reduce motion.
REPORT DAY
The NWS publishes the Central Park climate report for Thu, Oct 15, 2026 the next morning.
The contract on this page settles to it.
Settles today
● Open · True10 at 38¢
Most you can lose$3.97 + fee
Held at [FCM partner A]. Settles when the NWS publishes the Thu, Oct 15, 2026 report.
EXAMPLE MARKET · NOT A LIVE CONTRACT
P(x)
The high temperature in Central Park on Thu, Oct 15, 2026 is 75°F or higher.
True
38¢
False
62¢
62% implied
(•) the National Weather Service daily climate report for Central Park Published the morning after the day ends. If it is not published on time, the applies. Listed on Kalshi, a CFTC-designated contract market.
WHAT THIS MEASURES
A weather station in Central Park has recorded the temperature since 1869. This contract asks one thing: will the day's , as first published in the daily report, be 75°F or higher.
FILM · 30 SECONDS · TO BE MADE
How this settles
1Orders close
2The station records the day's high
3The NWS publishes its daily report
4The holder pays out
PAST READINGS · DAILY HIGH, °F
Illustrative values. The live chart reads the station's record. Every bar is one colour: a day above the line is a fact, not a win.
WHEN IT SETTLES
→Orders taken until trading closes, Thu, Oct 15, 2026
◷Settling: the NWS publishes the daily report
⊢Settled: the day's high, as first published
↧Paid to the holder, in the holder's own words
Ask what this contract means
Pick a question. Answers explain the contract and name their source. They never say what to do.
Practice forecast
No money and no prizes. Say how likely you think True is; when the NWS publishes the daily report, your forecast is scored.
Your practice record (example): 7 forecasts scored
YOUR RECORD CARD · EXAMPLE
7 practice forecasts scored · calibration 0.21
No prices, no money and no outcomes on it. You choose whether to share it.
Why people with a real reason watch this An outdoor event, a café's iced-drink order, a landscaper's crew schedule: their day depends on the weather. A contract pays $1.00 or $0 per contract on the published high. It does not cover a loss and is not insurance. Information only.
for 10 contracts at 38¢$0.17
Information only. Not advice. Predicated has no view on this market. You can lose money.
Your order
EXAMPLE · NOT LIVE
YOUR MOVE
Three questions before your first event contract.
Pick an answer to see the explanation. Nothing is scored against you.
In the product, your answers are kept as a record that this was explained to you.
Contracts
10 contracts × 38¢$3.80
Venue fee, Kalshi$0.17
Predicated fee[not set]
You pay now$3.97 + fee
If true, you receive$10.00
If false, you lose$3.97 + fee
Share of the $220 you gave us2% · limit 5%
× Refused · this would take you past your 5% limit
(•) Settles to the NWS daily climate report, Central Park, Thu, Oct 15, 2026 Fallback: [written]. Your money is held by [FCM partner A], in its segregated customer account.
Buy 10 True at 38¢
You pay now$3.97 + fee
Most you can lose$3.97 + fee
VenueKalshi, through [FCM partner A]
Not a bank, an exchange, a broker-dealer or an FCM, and never the other side of your trade. You can lose money. Not advice. No images or video in this sheet.
LEARN
Term
predicated
One weather market, as a customer would meet it
Weather is the one non-sports category growing fast, and the one with the clearest economic purpose. Example market, not a live contract. See also the CPI market.
TRY
Tap any underlined term for a plain explainer
Record a practice forecast: no money, no prizes
Ask the assistant a question, including "Should I buy True?"
Open an order: the first time, a three-question check comes first
Open an order, switch sides, and raise the quantity past the 5% limit
Place an order and watch it move from Ordered to Open
Make a record card under the practice forecast. It carries no prices and no money
Report day: the source leads and the record card turns plain. Place an order first to see "Settles today" on your held contract.