predicated business

Watching

Central Park from above, early morning. Video: the Dronalist, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cut and looped. Silent; stops if your phone is set to reduce motion.

BUSINESS VIEW · AN INVENTED CAFÉ

[Café name], an outdoor café in [City]

Before any contract: what the weather can do to a café like this, what a contract pays on, and the maths in your own numbers. Education, not advice.

1Your exposureOpen
2What it pays onNow
3Your own figuresLocked
4The marketLocked

1 · BEFORE ANY CONTRACT

Your exposure, explained

An outdoor café sells seats in the open air, so when the weather turns, trade turns with it, and not always in the same direction. A bad day costs twice: takings fall while rent, wages and stock are already paid for. These are general patterns, not a reading of your business.

A hot day

Past a certain heat, the terrace empties in the middle of the day. Iced drinks sell; hot drinks and hot food slow. Milk, ice and pastries cost more to keep, and staff need time out of the sun. Some cafés do better in the heat; many do worse after midday.

A wet day

The terrace closes, passing trade drops and takeaway shrinks. Food bought in for a full terrace goes to waste. Rain is a different question from heat: the market on this page measures the daily high only.

EXAMPLE FIGURES · INVENTED · NOT A REAL CAFÉ

An ordinary day's takings$2,400

A very hot afternoon$1,900 · down $500

A wet day$1,500 · down $900

Made up to show the shape of the problem. Your own takings belong in your own records; nothing on this page asks for them.

2 · WHAT A CONTRACT PAYS ON · CANNOT BE SKIPPED

It pays on the published high, not on your takings. It is not insurance.

A weather contract settles on one number: the high in the NWS daily climate report for the Central Park station. It never sees your till, your terrace or your street. The gap between that number and what happens to your café is called , and it runs both ways.

EXAMPLE · A BAD DAY, NO PAYMENT

The report says 74°F. Your terrace, in full sun, felt far hotter, and takings were down $500. True contracts on "75°F or higher" pay $0.

EXAMPLE · AN ORDINARY DAY, FULL PAYMENT

The report says 77°F. Your street was cloudy and takings were normal. True contracts pay $1.00 each all the same.

THE STATION IS NOT YOUR STREET

The station is in Central Park. [Café name] is in [City]. The further apart they are, the less the published high tells you about your terrace. Nobody adjusts the number for where you are.

Three questions. Pick an answer to see the explanation. Nothing is scored against you; the calculator and the market stay closed until all three are right.

The calculator and the market open once you have worked through the lesson above. It takes about a minute.

3 · YOUR OWN FIGURES

What contracts would pay and cost

We don't tell you how many to buy.

Put in any number of True contracts and a price. The calculator shows what they would pay on a True and cost on a False. It suggests no number, and it knows nothing about your café.

Contracts Any whole number. There is no right one.

Price, in cents 38¢ is the example market's price for True.

True contracts × 38¢–

, Kalshi–

Predicated fee[not set]

If True, they pay–

Left after what you paid–

If False, they cost you–

Enter a number of contracts to see what they would pay and cost.

Either way, the result is set by the published high. What happens at your till that day does not enter into it. The calculator works on this page only: nothing you type here is sent or kept.

4 · THE MARKET

The same example market and order sheet anyone sees. The first time you order, a three-question check comes first.

EXAMPLE MARKET · NOT A LIVE CONTRACT

P(x)

The high temperature in Central Park on Thu, Oct 15, 2026 is 75°F or higher.

True

38¢

False

62¢

62% implied

(•) the National Weather Service daily climate report for Central Park
Published the morning after the day ends. If it is not published on time, the applies. Listed on Kalshi, a CFTC-designated contract market.

WHAT THIS MEASURES

A weather station in Central Park has recorded the temperature since 1869. This contract asks one thing: will the day's , as first published in the daily report, be 75°F or higher.

FILM · 30 SECONDS · TO BE MADE

How this settles

1Orders close

2The station records the day's high

3The NWS publishes its daily report

4The holder pays out

PAST READINGS · DAILY HIGH, °F

Illustrative values. The live chart reads the station's record. Every bar is one colour: a day above the line is a fact, not a win.

WHEN IT SETTLES

→Orders taken until trading closes, Thu, Oct 15, 2026

◷Settling: the NWS publishes the daily report

⊢Settled: the day's high, as first published

↧Paid to the holder, in the holder's own words

Ask what this contract means

Pick a question. Answers explain the contract and name their source. They never say what to do.

Practice forecast

No money and no prizes. Say how likely you think True is; when the NWS publishes the daily report, your forecast is scored.

Your chance that it is True50%

Your practice record (example): 7 forecasts scored

Why people with a real reason watch this
An outdoor event, a café's iced-drink order, a landscaper's crew schedule: their day depends on the weather. A contract pays $1.00 or $0 per contract on the published high. It does not cover a loss and is not insurance. Information only.

for 10 contracts at 38¢$0.17

Information only. Not advice. Predicated has no view on this market. You can lose money.

predicated

The same market, as a café owner would meet it

An owner's view for an invented outdoor café. Before any contract, the owner reads what the weather can do to a café like this, works through what a contract pays on, and tries the maths in their own numbers. Example market, not a live contract. Same market and order sheet as the weather market.

Education, not advice: nothing on the page says how many contracts any business should buy, or whether to buy at all.

TRY

Read "Your exposure, explained": every takings figure is labelled as an invented example
Try to reach the calculator: the lesson on what a contract pays on comes first and cannot be skipped
Put any numbers into the calculator: it shows what they pay on a True and cost on a False, and suggests none
Ask the assistant "How many should my café buy?"
Open an order: the three-question check, then the same order sheet as the weather prototype
Make a record card under the practice forecast. It carries no prices and no money
Report day: the source leads and the record card turns plain. Place an order first to see "Settles today" on your held contract.

Colours and type: see the brand page.

RULES THIS VIEW KEEPS

Education, not advice: no number of contracts is suggested anywhere, and the calculator starts empty
Basis risk is said plainly and before any figures: it pays on the published high, not on takings
The café's numbers stay on the page: the calculator sends and keeps nothing
Reached through channels small firms already use, such as a trade association, a bookkeeping app or a point-of-sale dashboard (illustrative)
On-chain rails, where they come, sit underneath the product and are not part of what the owner sees

REAL

The video: Central Park from above by the Dronalist, CC BY 3.0, cut to a 6-second silent loop
The venue fee: Kalshi's published formula, rounded up to the cent
The calibration score: the standard Brier score

ILLUSTRATIVE

[Café name], [City] and every takings figure on the page
Prices, past readings, dates, the $220 of means, the practice record and the partner names
The 30-second settlement film, shown as a storyboard until it is made